Let's call this what it is.
When this war began on February 28, the stated objectives were clear. The American people were told this campaign would give the Iranian people an opportunity for regime change. We were told we would eliminate Iran's senior leadership. We were told we would take possession of Iran's nuclear material and stop the production of long-range ballistic missiles. We were told we would prevent Iran's proxies — Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas — from continuing their attacks on American allies and international shipping.
Those were the goals. Now let's look at what this deal actually delivers.
Iran was collapsing. Their economy is in ruins — 161% inflation on dairy, 176% on meat, more than half the population below the poverty line. Their military leadership has been systematically destroyed over 107 days of American and Israeli airstrikes. Senior IRGC commanders are dead. The regime was on its knees.
And Donald Trump just helped them back up.
But this didn't start today. The strategic incoherence began almost immediately after the first bombs fell. The United States went to war with Iran — and then allowed Iran to continue selling oil. Think about that for a moment. We launched a military campaign to destroy a regime, and then we let that regime keep generating revenue. In what war in the history of warfare has one side bombed the other and then allowed them to keep funding their own defense?
And it gets worse. While allowing Iran to sell oil, we also lifted restrictions on Russian oil exports. Russia — the country that has been waging war against Ukraine since 2022. The result was predictable: cheaper Russian oil flooded the market, undermining the economic pressure on Moscow that was one of the few tools keeping Ukraine in the fight. One decision managed to prop up two adversaries simultaneously.
The deal being pushed out of Washington tonight — if it actually gets signed — takes this incoherence to its logical conclusion. Iran gets sanctions relief, international legitimacy, and the ability to sell oil openly. In exchange, we get promises. Promises about nuclear dismantlement. Promises about the Strait of Hormuz. Promises from a government that may not have the authority to keep them.
Regime change? The regime survives. Nuclear material? Still in Iran's hands pending future negotiations. Ballistic missiles? Not even addressed in the deal. Proxies? Hezbollah launched projectiles into northern Israel today — the same day the deal is supposed to be signed. Hamas is still operating in Gaza. The Houthis are still disrupting shipping.
Not one of the original war aims has been achieved.
Israel's own media — including Israel Hayom, the paper closest to Netanyahu — is calling this a surrender deal. Israeli officials are on record saying "they screwed us," referring to Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner. Trump reportedly told associates that Netanyahu "has no f---ing judgment." This is not the language of an alliance. This is the sound of a relationship falling apart.
This is not the deal Netanyahu signed up for. When Israel went to war alongside the United States, the objective was to neutralize Iran's nuclear program, destroy its military capability, and eliminate the proxy networks that have been firing rockets into Israeli territory for decades. Instead, he is being handed a piece of paper that tells Israel to stop fighting while every one of those threats remains intact.
Netanyahu is now in an impossible position. He cannot publicly oppose the President of the United States. He cannot accept a deal that leaves his country surrounded by the same enemies who were trying to destroy it four months ago. And he cannot ignore the political reality at home — there is an election in October, and opposition leader Yair Lapid is already hammering him as the man who turned Israel into "a client state that takes orders about its national security."
The Israeli defense establishment is not even pretending this is peace. A senior security official told Yedioth Ahronoth that Israel may need to "launch wars at a faster pace" to prevent Iran's nuclear and missile programs from becoming an existential threat. The people responsible for Israel's security are already planning the next war before the ink is dry on this one's ceasefire.
This deal does not end the conflict. It freezes it — on terms that favor the side that was losing. Iran gets to rebuild. Israel gets to wait for the next attack. And the United States gets to declare victory and move on.
If Iran was collapsing — and by every economic and military indicator, it was — then the strategic move was to let it collapse. Instead, we are propping it back up and calling it diplomacy.
The people of Israel deserve better than this. And frankly, so do we.