Friday, July 31, 2026
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Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan on Tuesday, July 28, which U.S. forces intercepted, according to CNN (July 29). President Trump responded by stating the U.S. would hit Iran "hard" and that "it's our turn" (The Washington Post and CNN, July 29). This marks a sharp escalation after days of drone and missile exchanges.
Overnight July 29–30, U.S. Central Command said American forces struck dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets across Iran in a two-hour wave, hitting military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal defense sites, and maritime capabilities (The Guardian and CNBC, July 30). U.S. Central Command has provided no independent evidence of the targets struck or their destruction.
Iranian state media reported three IRGC members killed in Zanjan province and three people injured on Qeshm Island (The Guardian, July 30). Al Jazeera reported on July 31 that a U.S. strike on Qeshm Island killed a couple and their two-year-old child (not independently verified). Casualty figures from both sides remain unconfirmed beyond state media claims.
Iran responded with strikes in the region. The IRGC claimed responsibility for targeting a U.S. base in Kuwait on July 30, killing one person (Al Jazeera, July 31—claim not independently verified). Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to "punish the aggressor" and warned that countries aiding the U.S. could face a "harsh response" (CNBC, July 30). Jordan intercepted incoming Iranian missiles on both Wednesday, July 29, and Thursday, July 30, with no casualties reported (CBS News and The Guardian, July 31).
Crude oil traded around $83.50 per barrel on Friday, July 31, tracking a roughly 20% monthly gain amid Middle Eastern supply concerns (Trading Economics, July 31). Saudi Arabia held talks with 43 countries about forming a maritime coalition to safeguard shipping routes (Trading Economics, July 31). Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased after a recent slowdown.
Watch for: Further Iranian retaliation, U.S. response escalation, and whether regional powers intervene militarily. Monitor oil prices and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint.
Iran does not want a pause because it is ready to negotiate. It wants a pause because the damage is accumulating faster than it can absorb. The United States is systematically dismantling the infrastructure that keeps southern Iran connected, supplied, and functional. Roads, bridges, rail, telecommunications, a nuclear site. This is not punitive. This is structural.
The June memorandum gave Tehran 60 days, and satellite imagery now suggests they used that window to begin rebuilding nuclear facilities. The pattern is established: agree to stop, rebuild, generate revenue, resume. We believe President Trump has recognized this, and that is why the strikes continue. In our view, that is the correct decision.
Here is what we believe happens next. Iran will accept some form of pause within the next five to seven days. The infrastructure damage is cumulative and unsustainable. They will frame it as diplomacy, not surrender. President Trump will eventually take a deal — but on significantly harder terms than the June MoU. He is building leverage now that he did not have before. Oil will push past $90 and likely toward $100 if strikes continue and Iran keeps hitting Gulf production infrastructure.
The wildcard is the Houthis. Iran has reportedly instructed them to prepare a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia. If that activates, it opens a second front in the Red Sea on top of the Strait of Hormuz.
Our recommendation: direct Israel to engage the Houthis in Yemen. Israel has already demonstrated the capability. It accomplishes three things simultaneously. It neutralizes Iran's most effective proxy before a second maritime front opens. It builds an operational military relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia — the most significant regional realignment since Camp David. And it frees U.S. naval assets to focus on the Hormuz blockade and the Iran campaign. For Iran, it is the worst possible outcome — their proxy network under attack from Israel while the homeland absorbs American strikes, with no pause in sight.
Editorial Note: This Al Jazeera correspondent is reporting from inside Iran. His physical safety and continued access depend on not contradicting his hosts. He accurately relays what he is told by IRGC officials and what he can observe — but he cannot challenge Iranian claims on air. What is left unsaid may be as significant as what is reported.
US launches new wave of strikes against Iran, aimed at 'degrading' military — Al Jazeera English
Every major news outlet reports that Mojtaba Khamenei is alive and serving as Iran's new Supreme Leader. I have maintained since Day 1 that he was killed in the same strike that killed his father on February 28.
He has never appeared in public. Not once. His father, his sister, his 14-month-old niece, and multiple family members all died in the same compound on the same morning. Thirty missiles hit the building. Watch the footage below and ask yourself: how does anyone walk out of this?
There is no functioning government in Iran. The IRGC is running the country behind the name of a dead man because admitting the entire leadership was decapitated in a single strike means admitting total defeat. The negotiators talking to Trump's people are figureheads — and given what happened to Araghchi at the funeral, they know it.
Why maintain the fiction? Because the IRGC needs a Supreme Leader to exist. Without one, the entire constitutional structure of Iran collapses. No Supreme Leader means no authority over the military, no religious legitimacy, no chain of command. So they produce one. Whether he's breathing or not is secondary to whether the system keeps functioning.
This is my analysis. Draw your own conclusions from the evidence.
Iran releases first footage of bunker tunnel where Khamenei was killed in strike — Tehran compound interior
AS OF: Friday, July 31, 2026
[VERIFIED] 1. On Tuesday, July 28, 2026, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan (USA Today, July 29; The Guardian, July 30; CNN, July 29). CNN reported on July 29 that the attack was intercepted by U.S. forces. USA Today on July 29 reported that the Trump administration described it as a “surprise attack.”
[REPORTED] 2. On Tuesday, July 28, U.S. Central Command stated that it coordinated with Saudi Arabia’s armed forces to jointly strike Iranian-aligned militants in Iraq responsible for drone attacks on U.S. troops and Saudi energy infrastructure (USA Today, July 29). No supporting evidence has been published by U.S. Central Command.
[VERIFIED] 3. On Wednesday, July 29, President Donald Trump told reporters the U.S. would hit Iran “hard” (The Washington Post, July 29) and, following the intercepted attack, said “it’s our turn” (CNN, July 29).
[REPORTED] 4. A drone strike at Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta on Wednesday, July 29, hit a U.S.-owned tanker and sparked fires on two natural gas vessels. The origin of the strikes remains unknown. (The Washington Post, July 29; CBS News, July 31)
[REPORTED] 5. The Washington Post reported on July 29 that U.S. forces launched a new wave of airstrikes against Iran overnight (July 28–29). USA Today reported on July 29 that the main U.S. retaliatory strikes began at approximately 8 p.m. ET on July 29. These accounts describe separate strike timelines.
[VERIFIED] 6. Overnight July 29–30, U.S. Central Command said American forces struck dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets across Iran in a two-hour wave, hitting military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal defense sites, and maritime capabilities (The Guardian, July 30; CNBC, July 30). No independent evidence of the targets struck has been provided.
[REPORTED] 7. Iranian state media, cited by The Guardian on July 30, said three people were injured on Qeshm Island, explosions were reported in Khuzestan province, and the IRGC said three of its members were killed in Zanjan province by the U.S. strikes.
[REPORTED] 8. Al Jazeera reported on July 31 that a U.S. strike on a building on Qeshm Island killed a couple and their two‑year‑old child. No independent verification has been provided.
[REPORTED] 9. CBS News reported on July 31 that Iran said U.S. strikes on Thursday, July 30, killed three of its soldiers. No photographic, video, or named‑witness evidence has been published.
[VERIFIED] 10. On Thursday, July 30, Kuwait accused Iran of carrying out a strike that hit a building, killing one person (The Guardian, July 30; CBS News, July 31). On July 31, Al Jazeera reported that the IRGC claimed responsibility for targeting a U.S. base in Kuwait in response to the U.S. strikes on Iran. No independent evidence of the IRGC’s claim has been published.
[REPORTED] 11. Jordan intercepted incoming Iranian missiles on Wednesday, July 29, and again on Thursday, July 30—a second consecutive day of interceptions—with no casualties reported (CBS News, July 31; The Guardian, July 30).
[REPORTED] 12. On Thursday, July 30, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened to “punish the aggressor,” warned countries aiding the U.S. could face a “harsh response,” and asserted it maintains “full control” of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state media cited by CNBC on July 30. No evidence of control was provided.
[REPORTED] 13. CBS News reported on July 31 that Iranian state media said the bodies of five IRGC members killed in the joint U.S.-Saudi strikes in Iraq this week were returned through the Mehran border crossing on Friday, July 31.
[REPORTED] 14. Crude oil traded around $83.5 per barrel on Friday, July 31, on track for a roughly 20% monthly gain amid renewed U.S.-Iran fighting threatening Middle Eastern energy supplies (Trading Economics, July 31).
[REPORTED] 15. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased after a recent slowdown, allowing millions of barrels of crude to pass (Trading Economics, July 31).
[REPORTED] 16. Saudi Arabia held talks with representatives from 43 countries about forming a maritime coalition to safeguard shipping routes (Trading Economics, July 31).
[REPORTED] 17. OilPrice.com, in an undated report, stated that ADNOC bought five supertankers, that Iran claimed two oil tankers abandoned an attempt to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and that Qatar sent its first LNG cargo through the strait since a tanker attack.
[REPORTED] 18. A former U.S. Defense Secretary said on July 30 that the U.S. is “locked into an unwinnable war” with Iran (CNN, July 30).
[UNVERIFIED] 19. USA Today reported on July 29 that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met with President Trump at the White House on July 28, hours before the missile attack, and met with Defense Secretary Hegseth in Washington on July 29.
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