Khamenei Buried, New Supreme Leader Nowhere to Be Found

Military Operations

Eight Ships U-Turn at Hormuz; Iran IRGC Special Forces Deployed Along Gulf Coast

At least eight vessels — oil tankers, bulk carriers, and vehicle carriers — reversed course attempting to exit the Persian Gulf via the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz between July 3 and July 4, per Bloomberg. The reason for the reversals is unconfirmed; Iran has warned ships to use only its designated routes or face a 'forceful response.' Iran International confirmed IRGC special forces are now deployed along the Persian Gulf coast to identify and track vessels using the Oman-side route. Roughly 34 commodity vessels are crossing daily on average — far below pre-war norms. Crude remains in the low $70s, reflecting that markets have largely adjusted to alternative supply rather than pricing a Hormuz premium.

Source: Bloomberg, Iran International, Arab Times

UK and France Formalize Hormuz Escort Role; French Demining Assets Deployed

UK PM Starmer and French President Macron issued a joint statement July 3 committing to work with Oman to secure safe navigation through Omani territorial waters, and pledging to deploy the Multinational Military Mission to support freedom of navigation if needed. France has separately deployed demining assets to the Strait. The statement is a direct counter to Iran's campaign to restrict Omani-side transits and impose a toll scheme. Oman is navigating a difficult position — accepting UK-French security cooperation while maintaining its mediating relationship with Tehran.

Source: GOV.UK, The Tribune

IAF Strikes 10 Hezbollah Sites in Lebanon; Hezbollah Fires on Central Israel and Ashdod

Israeli Air Force struck approximately 10 Hezbollah infrastructure sites and a weapons-transfer truck in southern Lebanon on July 3, in retaliation for a Hezbollah attack on IDF troops. Separately, Hezbollah launched missile barrages toward central Israel and Ashdod, with sirens sounding in Haifa and Kiryat Shmona. A trilateral framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon was signed June 26 under US Secretary of State Rubio — but Hezbollah was not a party to it and has vowed to continue fighting. Lebanese President Aoun stated the agreement 'does not legitimize' IDF presence. Active combat continued through July 3 regardless of the paper framework.

Source: IDF, Times of Israel, GeoBit Intelligence, CBS News

Diplomacy & Negotiations

All US-Iran Talks Paused for Funeral Week; Next Round Scheduled July 11 in Pakistan

Iran suspended all diplomatic contacts with the United States for the duration of Khamenei funeral ceremonies, which run July 4–9. Iranian negotiators departed Doha following the July 1 lower-level technical round, which Qatari FM spokesman Majed al-Ansari described as yielding 'positive progress.' VP Vance told CNN the talks are 'going well' and flagged the nuclear file as next on the agenda. Al Arabiya reports the July 11 session will be held in Pakistan, with nuclear issues, sanctions, and frozen funds on the agenda. The funeral pause is diplomatically conventional — but given the leadership vacuum in Tehran, the more important question is who will actually be authorizing Iran's position on July 11.

Source: AP, CNN, Al Arabiya, Qatari Foreign Ministry, Times of India

Iran Blocks IAEA Access to Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan — Satellite Shows Tunnel Reconstruction at Pickaxe Mountain

Chief negotiator Ghalibaf confirmed July 2 that IAEA inspectors will not be permitted entry to Fordow, Natanz, or Isfahan under any circumstances, citing parliamentary law and Supreme National Security Council authorization. Simultaneously, satellite imagery analyzed by @vantortech for the Institute for International Security shows continued reconstruction activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a tunnel complex near Natanz that has never been declared to the IAEA. Natanz surface entrances remain destroyed, but the underground tunnel complex work is active. Experts called the findings 'deeply concerning.' This activity appears to contradict the spirit of the Islamabad MOU, and with inspectors locked out, there is no mechanism to verify what is actually being built.

Source: Wikipedia, NCRI, Times of Israel, Fox News, Yahoo News

Saudi-Qatar-Turkey-Pakistan-Egypt Grouping Emerges as New Regional Architecture; UAE Notably Absent

Foreign Policy reports a new informal grouping — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt — has emerged as the primary regional mediation architecture outside the GCC framework. The UAE is conspicuously absent. This 'Big Four plus Qatar' configuration drove the ceasefire effort and is now central to post-Islamabad MOU diplomacy. Former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal explicitly framed the conflict as an Israeli attempt to ignite a Saudi-Iranian war, calling the ceasefire outcome a success. CENTCOM Adm. Cooper met with senior military officials from 12 nations in Bahrain on July 1, discussing Hormuz and regional security.

Source: Foreign Policy, IPS Journal, CENTCOM, CNN

Inside Iran

New Supreme Leader Absent from Father's Funeral — IRGC Clique Appears to Hold De Facto Power

Mojtaba Khamenei did not attend day one of his father's state funeral and has made no public appearance since his March 8 appointment. NBC News, citing three people with knowledge, reports he sustained burns to his face and body and leg injuries requiring multiple surgeries in the strike that killed his father. The NYT reports he is 'hiding in a bunker' with limited access and communication. IRGC commander Gen. Ahmad Vahidi made his first confirmed public appearance since February at Thursday's smaller ceremony and is reported by POLITICO to be part of the clique in direct contact with the incapacitated leader. The regime is projecting unity via funeral spectacle while actual governance authority is concentrated in an unelected, unaccountable military clique operating from an undisclosed location.

Source: NBC News, NYT, POLITICO, IranWire, Times of Israel

Hardline Paydari Faction Revolts: State TV Censors Ghalibaf, 84 MPs Denounce MOU

Iran's state broadcaster IRIB, under Paydari Front influence, abruptly censored a pre-recorded interview with Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Ghalibaf on July 1. On July 2, at least 84 Paydari-aligned parliamentarians endorsed a statement implicitly criticizing the Islamabad MOU and negotiations. This follows a June 28 statement from 60 Assembly of Experts members warning negotiators. Media aligned with Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian describe the attacks as an effort by the Jalili-Paydari faction to 'create divisions among senior officials and weaken the postwar political path.' The split is real and widening: one faction wants to negotiate, the other is blocking IAEA access, censoring the negotiator, and organizing parliamentary opposition — simultaneously.

Source: NCRI, Iran International, ISW

134 Executions in One Month; Female PMOI Supporter Sentenced to Death; Evin Prison in Health Crisis

134 prisoners were executed between May 22 and June 21 per NCRI/MEK-affiliated tracking. Arghavan Fallahi, a 25-year-old female PMOI supporter, was sentenced to death July 1. The UK Home Office country bulletin notes 800+ protesters sentenced to death after the January 2026 uprising, with executions halted following US threats. At least 8 'Resistance Units' members were executed alongside other political prisoners in the current period. Evin Prison faces a severe health crisis — kidney, heart, digestive, skin, and infectious diseases spreading amid medicine shortages and restricted medical access. Bread inflation exceeded 140% in May per central bank data; the rial is at historic lows; electricity blackouts persist with a supply deficit potentially exceeding 20 GW. Note: execution tallies from NCRI/MEK sources; treat as directionally reliable but independently unverifiable.

Source: NCRI, Iran HRM, RFE/RL, ISW, UK Home Office

Regional Impact

IRGC Strikes Kurdish Cell in West Azerbaijan, Continues Attacks on Erbil and Sulaymaniyah

IRGC Ground Forces ambushed a PDKI-affiliated cell near Piranshahr, West Azerbaijan Province on July 2, killing five and claiming the group carried IEDs. Iranian missile and drone strikes continued against Kurdish militia positions around Erbil and Sulaymaniyah in Iraqi Kurdistan. PJAK-IRGC clashes were reported July 1 in western Iran. Active groups include PJAK, KDPI/PDKI, Komala, and PAK. The Islamabad MOU ceasefire framework does not cover this parallel conflict, and Iranian operations inside Iraqi Kurdistan represent a continued violation of Iraqi sovereignty that Baghdad has been unable or unwilling to halt.

Source: ISW, Wikipedia

Iran's 'Friendly Nation' Fee Strategy Targets China — Divide-and-Conquer on Hormuz Tolls

Iran's ambassador to Beijing announced that China and 'other friendly nations' will receive 'special considerations' on Hormuz transit fees. This is a deliberate strategy to fracture the US-led coalition by offering major oil consumers — China, India, others — preferential access in exchange for political distance from Washington. ISW assessed that Iran continues to insist on an 'illegal toll scheme' despite Omani opposition. Trump has stated negotiations would end 'immediately' if Iran charges tolls. The fee strategy has not yet been implemented operationally, but the diplomatic signal is clear: Tehran is trying to buy a wedge between Gulf security partners and Asian consumers.

Source: Bloomberg, Fortune, ISW, Times of Israel

Gaza: Smotrich Presents Settlement Plans for Northern Gaza; IDF Kills Hamas Commander

Finance Minister Smotrich told reporters his ministry has prepared plans for three settlements in northern Gaza awaiting Netanyahu's approval, making continued coalition participation conditional on advancing settlement control. The IDF reported killing Mohammad Fathi Abd al-Hay Abu Fakher, a veteran Hamas commander involved in weapons smuggling and battalion rebuilding efforts, on July 3. Israeli Defense Minister Katz confirmed IDF forces remain in 'security zones' in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza 'until further notice.'

Source: Al Jazeera, israelpalestine.liveuamap.com, The Hindu

Conflicting Reports — Read Critically

Mojtaba Khamenei's condition and whereabouts

NBC News	Major US broadcast network, three unnamed sources	Mojtaba was severely injured in the strike that killed his father — burns to face and body, leg injuries requiring multiple surgeries
NYT	Major US newspaper	Mojtaba has been hiding in a bunker; access to and communication with him has been limited
Iranian state media / regime	State propaganda apparatus	No acknowledgment of injury or incapacity; absence from funeral not officially explained

Assessment: NBC and NYT accounts are consistent with each other and with observable fact: the Supreme Leader of Iran did not attend his own father's state funeral. The regime has offered no explanation, which is itself confirmation that something is seriously wrong. Injury accounts credible but based on anonymous sourcing — medical specifics unverifiable.

Lebanon ceasefire status

US State Department / Secretary Rubio	US Government official	Trilateral framework agreement signed June 26 establishes phased process to end state of war and coordinate Israeli withdrawal alongside disarmament of non-state armed groups
Hezbollah	Armed non-state actor	Not a party to the agreement; vowed to continue fighting
Lebanese President Aoun	Head of state	Agreement does not legitimize IDF presence in Lebanon

Assessment: The framework is paper. Both sides were actively exchanging fire on July 3 — IAF struck 10 sites, Hezbollah hit central Israel and Ashdod. A ceasefire agreement that excludes the primary fighting party on one side is not a ceasefire. Call it what it is: a diplomatic document that has not stopped the war.

Iran's radar infrastructure destruction

President Trump (CNBC interview, July 3)	US Head of State, unverified claim	US forces systematically destroyed Iran's radar infrastructure; Iran has no radar and still doesn't; US struck Iran for three consecutive days and secretly escorted 22 commercial ships through Hormuz
Independent analysts / imagery	No independent verification available	No third-party satellite or signals intelligence analysis confirming the scope of radar destruction has been published

Assessment: Trump's claims are plausible in broad outline — CENTCOM has confirmed strikes on 7,000+ Iranian targets — but the specific assertion of total radar destruction and the covert 22-ship escort operation are unverified by any independent source. Treat as presidential claims, not confirmed operational fact.

Hormuz vessel U-turn cause

Bloomberg	Major financial wire service	At least eight ships turned back between Friday and Saturday; reason unknown
Iran IRGC / Iranian state	State military	Vessels must use Iran's approved routes or face forceful response; IRGC special forces deployed to enforce this

Assessment: Bloomberg explicitly states the reason for the U-turns is unknown. The timing correlates with Iran's July 2 warning and IRGC coastal deployment, making coercion or insurance-driven avoidance the most likely explanations — but no ship captain, operator, or flag state has confirmed either on record.

Analysis

The Funeral Is the Cover Story. The Real Story Is Who's Running Iran.

The Islamic Republic is staging the largest legitimacy ritual in its calendar — a Supreme Leader's funeral — without its Supreme Leader. Mojtaba Khamenei's absence is the single most important data point in today's reporting, and it deserves to be stated plainly: the man who is supposed to be the sovereign authority of 90 million people cannot appear in public, apparently because he is too badly injured and too politically fragile to risk the exposure. The regime appointed him in a rushed emergency session on March 8 and has been managing the fiction of his authority ever since. The IRGC clique around Vahidi is doing the actual governing. This is not a transition — it is a regency, and like all regencies, it is inherently unstable.

The factional war inside Iran is now breaking into the open in ways that directly threaten the negotiating track. You cannot have a functioning diplomatic process when the state broadcaster is censoring the chief negotiator, 84 parliamentarians are publicly denouncing the MOU he signed, and the entity that controls the nuclear program — the IRGC — is simultaneously rebuilding tunnel complexes at an undeclared site and locking the IAEA out of all declared sites. These are not contradictory signals. They are a coherent strategy by the Paydari-IRGC faction to preserve the nuclear program while the pragmatist faction takes the blame for any deal that gets made.

The July 11 Pakistan round will be the first real test of whether there is anyone with actual authority on the Iranian side to make binding commitments. Ghalibaf can agree to language. Whether that language means anything depends on whether the IRGC clique around Mojtaba has signed off — and there is currently no way to verify that from the outside. Watch for whether the IAEA access ban holds after the funeral. If Iran continues to block inspectors while simultaneously claiming to negotiate in good faith, the diplomatic track is theater. The satellite imagery at Pickaxe Mountain is the tell: Iran is not mothballing its nuclear program during talks. It is hardening it.

What We Don't Know

Mojtaba Khamenei's actual medical status and functional capacity — NBC's three-source account is the only reporting; no independent medical or imaging confirmation
What exactly is being constructed at Pickaxe Mountain — satellite imagery confirms activity but not the nature or purpose of reconstruction
Why the eight ships U-turned at Hormuz — no ship operator, flag state, or insurer has confirmed whether this was coercion, voluntary avoidance, or insurance mandate
Whether the IRGC clique around Vahidi has formally or informally assumed decision-making authority over nuclear and military files while Mojtaba remains incapacitated
Baluch, Arab, and Azeri minority unrest inside Iran — near-total information blackout; no current reporting available, which is itself significant given sustained economic pressure
Actual extent of US destruction of Iranian radar infrastructure — Trump's claims unverified by any independent signals intelligence or satellite analysis
Whether any GCC state has held bilateral contacts with Tehran outside the formal Doha/Pakistan mediation track during the funeral pause